{"id":162667,"date":"2020-10-09T11:17:32","date_gmt":"2020-10-09T10:17:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/samathieson.com\/sa-mathieson\/?p=162667"},"modified":"2024-08-01T12:44:07","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T11:44:07","slug":"why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/samathieson.com\/sa-mathieson\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Why case numbers don\u2019t tell the whole Covid story"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.computerweekly.com\/feature\/UK-government-coronavirus-data-flawed-and-misleading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an article for Computer Weekly this week<\/a>, I highlighted four different official numbers for UK Covid-19 deaths on 30 April, from 548 to 769 (on the day, Boris Johnson said 674). The graph below shows how much these four measures vary.<\/p>\n<p><iframe class=\"highcharts-iframe\" style=\"border: 0; width: 100%; height: 650px;\" title=\"Chart: \" src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/embed\/X7dblk74Y\/\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>But with deaths thankfully much lower now than in the spring, the focus is on coronavirus case rates. This is unfortunate, because as a measure they are seriously flawed. Leaving aside the loss of nearly 16,000 cases due to incompetent use of spreadsheets (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theregister.com\/2020\/10\/07\/who_me\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">this is not a new problem with Microsoft Excel<\/a>) there is the issue that more testing will almost certainly reveal more cases, and UK testing has quadrupled since April. Better availability of testing in an area, a good thing, could well lead to it having a higher case rate.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of this case numbers are rising very fast in areas including Manchester, but even there the story is more nuanced than it looks. The city has a case rate of just over 500 per 100,000 people, but scaling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/webappviewer\/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the highly-localised case data for 28 September to 4 October<\/a> by population shows a huge range, from less than 250 in Castlefield and Deansgate and East Didsbury to above 4,400 in Fallowfield Central, which records 528 actual cases.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t take former University of Manchester staffer Alan Turing to crack this code: Fallowfield is home to the university\u2019s main accommodation site, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk\/news\/greater-manchester-news\/fallowfield-now-countrys-covid-19-19037362\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">one parent quoted by the Manchester Evening News<\/a> called \u201cCovid soup\u201d. Most students in their early 20s are, thank goodness, at low risk if they catch the virus. But case numbers treat students and the much-more-at-risk elderly the same.<\/p>\n<p>The experts I spoke to for Computer Weekly recommended monitoring a number of indicators to get a clearer picture. If you insist on a single source of data to guide you, expect to be misguided.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In an article for Computer Weekly this week, I highlighted four different official numbers for UK Covid-19 deaths on 30 April, from 548 to 769 (on the day, Boris Johnson said 674). The graph below shows how much these four measures vary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2,363,6,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-162667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles","category-data","category-healthcare","category-the-north"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why case numbers don\u2019t tell the whole Covid story - SA Mathieson<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For Computer Weekly I highlighted four different official numbers for UK Covid-19 deaths. The focus now is on coronavirus case numbers.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/samathieson.com\/sa-mathieson\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why case numbers don\u2019t tell the whole Covid story - SA Mathieson\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For Computer Weekly I highlighted four different official numbers for UK Covid-19 deaths. The focus now is on coronavirus case numbers.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/samathieson.com\/sa-mathieson\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SA Mathieson\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-09T10:17:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-01T11:44:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"SA Mathieson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"SA Mathieson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"SA Mathieson\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3606fa34fc4a527f20eeb5a32ff83a36\"},\"headline\":\"Why case numbers don\u2019t tell the whole Covid story\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-09T10:17:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-01T11:44:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":309,\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\",\"Data\",\"Healthcare\",\"The North\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/why-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-covid-story\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why case numbers don\u2019t tell the whole Covid story - SA Mathieson\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-09T10:17:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-01T11:44:07+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/samathieson.com\\\/sa-mathieson\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3606fa34fc4a527f20eeb5a32ff83a36\"},\"description\":\"For Computer Weekly I highlighted four different official numbers for UK Covid-19 deaths. 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